The objective of this course is to provide a simplified introduction to the methodology of country risk analysis and to familiarise the student with the practical use of economic information produced by applied economic research institutions (INSEE, Central Bank, IMF).
After briefly establishing our definition of country risk, we will recall the decomposition of GDP by demand.
A second part of the course will focus on the risks of the external environment. The aim here is to present the fundamental notions of the balance of payments, which are essential for diagnosing the risks associated with external deficits. We will illustrate this with two case studies: the Asian crisis and the Eurozone crisis.
A shorter section will be devoted to political risk and the assessment of the business environment.
The course will make use of real examples, including reference to business publications.
L'impact du grand marché sur le comportement et la restructuration des entreprises
Risks of the external environment: basic concepts
Political risk and business environment assessment
Marcos Carias is Coface's economist for the Eurozone. As a doctor in Financial Macroeconomics from the University of Bordeaux, he wrote his thesis on the Eurozone crisis and financial crisis prevention policies (macroprudential policies). More recently, he dealt with the subject of corporate failures in the era of "whatever it takes" in the study "The paradox of failures in Europe: miracle or mirage? He also worked on the macroeconomic effects of telework in the study "The risks and opportunities of virtual relocation" (June 2021).